Historian Allan Lichtman has made a bold prediction for the 2024 presidential election, stating that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump. Known for his impressive track record of forecasting election outcomes—accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections—Lichtman's confidence stems from a careful analysis of thirteen key factors related to the current political landscape.
These "keys" assess various elements, including the party's performance in midterm elections and the incumbent's charisma. Presently, eight keys are aligned in favor of Harris, while only three favor Trump, making it challenging for the former president to reclaim the White House. Lichtman underscores that even with potential foreign policy challenges arising from current global conflicts, the overall dynamics favor Harris.
Lichtman, a distinguished professor at American University and author of several books, emphasizes the importance of voter participation, urging citizens to engage in the electoral process to influence the outcome.
For more insights on this prediction and its implications, you can refer to articles from USA Today and The New York Times.
