With the 2026 midterms approaching, former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza has delivered a grim forecast for the Democratic Party, highlighting key retirements and financial constraints that could derail their efforts to regain control of the U.S. Senate.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s Exit Weakens Democratic Prospects
On Wednesday, Cillizza pointed to the recent announcement by New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen that she will not seek re-election. This unexpected decision has significantly weakened Democrats’ chances of reclaiming the Senate majority, he said.
“Even if we don’t see another retirement on the Democratic side, these three retirements already, I think, have crushed the hopes of Democrats who wanted to try to win back the Senate in 2026,” Cillizza stated.
Democrats Need Four Seats—But Are They There?
To regain control, Democrats must secure a net gain of four seats. However, Cillizza believes that the numbers are working against them. With 22 Republican seats and 13 Democrat-held seats up for grabs, the political battleground could have provided an opportunity—yet, in reality, it appears far more difficult.
“There’s a finite pot of money that gets spent on Senate races,” Cillizza explained. “And the truth is that, at least in Michigan and New Hampshire, particularly if Chris Sununu (former Governor of New Hampshire) winds up being the Republican nominee, Democrats will have to spend tens of millions just to hold onto those seats.”
Financial Strain Limits Democratic Offensive Strategy
According to Cillizza, defending key Senate seats will drain Democratic resources and limit their ability to challenge Republican-held seats in crucial states. “The money spent playing defense, just to hold Democratic seats, means less money to go on offense in states like Ohio, where Democrats are trying to recruit Sherrod Brown to take on John Huston, the appointed Republican senator,” he said.
While Democrats may attempt to unseat incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and Tom Tillis in North Carolina, these efforts will require substantial financial backing. Meanwhile, key Democratic incumbents—such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia—are at risk, with polls suggesting vulnerability.
“I just do not see it,” Cillizza concluded. “I don’t see the money there. I don’t see the energy there. I don’t see the candidates there to expand the playing field. And I think that’s a major, major problem for Democrats.”
